Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

Meteorological drought monitoring in the Urmia Lake Basin using Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Tropical Rainfall Condition Index

10.22034/jmas.2026.567336.1259

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 30 May 2026
Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Sima Kazempour Choursi 1
Mahdi Erfanian 1
Hirad Abghari 1
Mirhassan Miryaghoubzadeh 1
Khadijeh Javan 2

1 Department of Range and Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

2 Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

Abstract
Drought monitoring in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB) is essential due to its prolonged hydrological crisis and the associated challenges in water resource management, agriculture, human livelihoods, and ecosystem sustainability. This study evaluates meteorological drought conditions using the Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (Pa) and the Tropical Rainfall Condition Index (TRCI) across the ULB from 2001 to 2019. Drought indices were derived from downscaled monthly precipitation data obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), with a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Analysis revealed that drought events occurred throughout the year over 2001-2019, with peak severity from August to November and a notable reduction between November and February. Spatial assessments based on Pa and TRCI indicated discrepancies in drought intensity and spatial extent. The Pa index captured short-term and abrupt precipitation variability, while TRCI reflected more persistent and representative drought conditions across the basin. The combined application of Pa and TRCI enhances the characterization of drought dynamics and provides a more robust framework for drought assessment. Incorporating these indices into water resource planning is recommended to support adaptive management strategies in drought-prone regions.

Keywords

Climate Change
Urmia Lake
Spatial Distribution of Drought
TRCI Index
TRMM
Subjects

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