Identification of Trends and Spatial Patterns of Extreme Droughts and Wet Events in Iran

10.22034/jmas.2026.565314.1256

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran

Abstract
Drought is one of the most significant climatic hazards in Iran, with extensive impacts on water resources and food security. This study aims to analyze drought trends over the past three decades and to identify the spatial patterns of the most extreme droughts and wet events in Iran. For this purpose, the Standardized Drought Severity Index (ZSI) was calculated on an annual basis using ERA5-Land reanalysis precipitation data. The temporal trends of the ZSI were examined using linear regression. The results indicated that 2019 and 2021 were the wettest and driest years of the study period, respectively, with approximately 63% of the country affected by moderate to extreme wet conditions in 2019, whereas over 80% of Iran experienced moderate to extreme drought in 2021. Spatial analysis of the index revealed distinct patterns, with the highest positive ZSI values recorded in the northeast, west, and south regions in 2019, and the most severe drought conditions occurring in the eastern, northwest, and western regions in 2021. Furthermore, long-term trend analysis of the ZSI showed a weak negative slope of -0.0068, which was not statistically significant, indicating the absence of a persistent trend in drought severity over the study period.

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