Detection of Heat Wave Characteristics Trends Associated with Climate Change in Arid Regions (Case Study: Yazd County)

10.22034/jmas.2025.541936.1249

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 graduate student in applied meteorology, Yazd University

2 PhD student in Climatology, Yazd University

3 PhD student in synoptic climatology, University of Isfahan

Abstract
Global warming and climate change are among the most critical environmental challenges of the present era, exerting profound impacts on the climatic dynamics of arid regions. This study aims to detect the trends of heat wave characteristics and their relationship with temperature anomalies in Yazd, Iran. For this purpose, daily temperature data during the period 1960–2017 were employed. Heat wave indices, including the number of events, frequency of heat wave days, duration, magnitude, intensity, and the mean temperature of the hottest day within each wave, were calculated using the ClimPACT software in the R (version 2.10) environment. To investigate correlations, temperature anomalies at the Yazd station were extracted and compared with global land surface temperature anomalies. The results indicated that the highest number of heat wave events occurred in 2010 and 2016. The frequency of heat wave days showed a statistically significant increasing trend, reaching 47 and 42 days in 2010 and 2016, respectively. A considerable increase in the duration and intensity of heat waves was also observed; the longest duration was recorded in 2013 with 13 consecutive days, while the maximum magnitude of heat waves exceeded 31 °C during the last two decades. Correlation analysis revealed a strong association between all heat wave indices and temperature anomalies, with the frequency of heat wave days showing the highest coefficient of determination (R²=0.6108). Overall, the findings highlight the intensification, persistence, and severity of heat waves in Yazd over recent decades, providing clear evidence of ongoing climate change in this arid region. Understanding future trends of heat waves can significantly contribute to risk management strategies, climate adaptation planning, and efficient energy consumption.
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