Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Assistant Professor of Climatology, Dept. of geography, Imam Ali Military University
2
Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran.
Abstract
The aim of the current study is the effect of climate change on the location of barberry cultivation in Iran due to climate change. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the phenology stages of barberry cultivation areas, the simulated data of the output of the hadGEM2-ES coupled model has been used. According to the integrated AHP method, suitable or relatively suitable areas for barberry cultivation in the country are 35685810 hectares, of which 9791140 hectares (6.01%) are suitable areas and 258946670 hectares (15.92%) are relatively suitable areas. Average and unsuitable areas for barberry cultivation are 27.7 and 50.2 percent of the total area of the country, respectively. According to the RCP4.5 scenarios, in the statistical period of 2059-2030, the location of the susceptible points for barberry cultivation was done, and 20.3% were suitable areas, 13.5% were relatively suitable areas, and 66.44% were medium areas for barberry cultivation. According to the RCP8.5 scenarios, in the near future, 20.2% of suitable areas, 11.1% of relatively suitable areas, and 68.7% of medium areas of barberry cultivation were found. According to the RCP8.5 scenarios, in the statistical period of 2089-2060, it was found that 22.63% were suitable areas, 20.7% were relatively suitable areas, and 56.6% were medium areas for barberry cultivation. Based on the RCP4.5 scenarios, in the statistical period of 2089-2060, it was determined that 14 and 58% of barberry cultivation was done except suitable, relatively suitable and medium areas, respectively.
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