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Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
Abstract
This study aims to assess the change of drought characteristics (severity, duration, and frequency) under the effect of climate change. To attain this objective, two groups of observational and simulated data were applied. The observational data was related to the monthly precipitation data of 39 synoptic stations in Iran for 30 years (1975-2005) and the simulated monthly precipitation data are also related to the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiments-South Asia (CORDEX-WS) was under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Due to the poor performance of average RCMs in simulating precipitation in the historical period, one of the bias correction (BC) methods called bias correction based on quantile ranking (QRBC) was used. Then, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Theory of Runs (TOR), the severity, duration, and frequency of droughts in Iran were extracted on annual time scale. The evaluation of the annual drought projection indicated various conditions for different regions of Iran during near-future, middle-future and far-future. Moreover, it can be said that Iran will face increased changes in the severity of droughts as according to the RCP8.5 scenario, the most changes in the severity of droughts (3.83% compared to the historical period) will occur during the far-future. While the minimum changes in the increase of drought severity according to the RCP4.5 scenario will occur in the middle climate (0.67% compared to the historical period), which is accompanied by a decrease in duration changes (2.04% compared to the historical period).
Ghaemi,ع. , Hashemi Monfared,S. A. , Bahrpeyma,A. , Mahmoudi,P. and Zounemat-Kermani,M. (2022). Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics of Iran under the climate change scenarios. Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 5(1), 68-80. doi: 10.22034/jmas.2023.390166.1199
MLA
Ghaemi,ع. , , Hashemi Monfared,S. A. , , Bahrpeyma,A. , , Mahmoudi,P. , and Zounemat-Kermani,M. . "Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics of Iran under the climate change scenarios", Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 5, 1, 2022, 68-80. doi: 10.22034/jmas.2023.390166.1199
HARVARD
Ghaemi ع., Hashemi Monfared S. A., Bahrpeyma A., Mahmoudi P., Zounemat-Kermani M. (2022). 'Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics of Iran under the climate change scenarios', Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 5(1), pp. 68-80. doi: 10.22034/jmas.2023.390166.1199
CHICAGO
ع. Ghaemi, S. A. Hashemi Monfared, A. Bahrpeyma, P. Mahmoudi and M. Zounemat-Kermani, "Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics of Iran under the climate change scenarios," Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 5 1 (2022): 68-80, doi: 10.22034/jmas.2023.390166.1199
VANCOUVER
Ghaemi ع., Hashemi Monfared S. A., Bahrpeyma A., Mahmoudi P., Zounemat-Kermani M. Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics of Iran under the climate change scenarios. Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, 2022; 5(1): 68-80. doi: 10.22034/jmas.2023.390166.1199