Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD student / Department of Water Engineering / Faculty of Water and Soil / Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
2
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Water and Soil, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3
Soil and Water Research Department, Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Education Center of Mazandaran Province, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Sari, Iran
4
Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran
Abstract
The objective of this study is to project future temperature and solar radiation for the cities of Gorgan, Shiraz, and Urmia using the LARS-WG8, driven by outputs from the HadGEM3 climate model under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 emission scenarios, based on historical data from the baseline period (1991-2020). The results indicated that, compared to the baseline period, over the upcoming 60-year statistical period under the aforementioned scenarios, respectively: for Gorgan, maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.2, 1.49, and 2.36 °C, and minimum temperature by 1.7, 2.15, and 3.0 °C; for Shiraz, maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.25, 1.67, and 2.45 °C, and minimum temperature by 1.96, 2.5, and 3.52 °C; and for Urmia, maximum temperature is projected to increase by 1.28, 1.8, and 2.96 °C, and minimum temperature by 1.9, 2.5, and 3.5 °C. Furthermore, future solar radiation trends compared to the baseline period were projected to increase for Gorgan and decrease for Shiraz, while for Urmia, the trend varied depending on the specific scenario. Therefore, considering the projected future changes in temperature and radiation, it is imperative that decision-makers and planners take appropriate actions to manage the impacts on climate-sensitive sectors, including water and soil resources, agriculture, the environment, and industry. Hence, for adapting to the emerging climate conditions, it is recommended to cultivate more suitable crops in the study regions and to implement necessary measures for the quantitative and qualitative conservation of water, soil, and energy resources.
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